Here is the official press release:

Dublin, Ireland (August 22, 2011) – On August 16, Irish based Pocket Kings Ltd., brand executor for the Full Tilt Poker moniker, concluded the exclusivity period of negotiations with their current potential investor.

While Pocket Kings Ltd. plans to continue discussions with its current investor, the company has now begun negotiations with additional potential investors to conclude the sale/partnership of the Full Tilt Poker brand and its assets.

Full Tilt Poker apologizes for its lack of communication with its customers over the last month and a half, but it has been grappling with unexpected and complex legal and financial issues arising from Black Friday and its aftermath. In addition, the company has had to be circumspect about disclosing the progress of negotiations with potential investors because there is often a requirement of strict confidentiality.

To the extent that it can do so without jeopardizing future opportunities, Full Tilt Poker will strive to have better communication with its customers going forward. Full Tilt Poker’s number one priority remains the same: to secure an infusion of capital to repay all of its worldwide customers.

This past Friday the Alderney Gambling Control Commission (AGCC) released a statement saying that Full Tilt Poker has paid its past due licensing fees of over $400k USD. I view this as bullish for US Players getting paid and so does the AGCC. Here is their statement: “The recent payment of overdue licence fees by FTP is also in players’ best interests since it allows commercial negotiations to take place that might result in a successful refinancing deal.”

It’s a scenario that every poker play knows all too well: the turn is dealt, and you have a monster hand (Trip kings, a straight, it doesn’t matter). Play goes back and forth, the pot getting larger and larger, and suddenly you are all in. You both show your hands, and all he has is a flush draw. But then the river comes and, lo and behold, it’s a spade and to complete his flush. You played the hand perfectly, so it’s tough to think of a way out of handing the opponent all your money after he wins the river lottery.

The answer to this problem may come in the form of something called “running it twice”. If both players agree to “run it twice,” the dealer splits the pot in two. Then he deals the river in the normal way, and whoever has the best hand wins half of the pot. Next, the dealer burns a card (without replacing the previously dealt card) and deals out a new river. Whoever wins this time gets the second half of the pot. If players agree to run it twice pre flop the entire board is dealt twice, or from the flop, 2 turns and rivers must be dealt.

So why would a player want to run it twice? After all, the odds of winning aren’t actually changed. The answer is that it reduces the likelihood of losing everything. In a normal hand, there are generally only two options: win the entire pot, or win nothing and lose everything you’ve put in. Split pots are rare. When you run it twice, though, there are three possibilities: win, lose, or split the pot.

For example, in the scenario at the beginning of this article the opponent was a huge underdog. To make the math simple let’s say that he had a one in four chance of winning. If you just play the hand out normally, that means there’s a one in four chance that you lose everything or 25%. So 75% of the time you win it all and 25% of the time you go broke. But if you run it twice, the odds change: the likelihood of your opponent hitting is flush two times in a row is only (1/4) x (1/4)=1/16, or about 6 %. So all of a sudden the risk of going broke has gone down by a factor of four.

Here’s an example, just to show how the math works. You hold pocket kings of clubs and diamonds. The flop comes King of spades, 6 of diamonds, 4 of hearts, giving you three kings. The turn comes 7 of spades, and your opponent goes all in. You call, and see that he has A8 of spades, for a flush draw and a gut shot straight. Now, you will win 77.27% of the time here, while he wins 22.73% of the time. If you decide to run it twice, you win the whole pot (.772 x .772)=59.6% of the time. He wins the whole pot (.2273 x.2273)=5.2% of the time. You split the pot (100 – 59.6 – 5.2)=35.2% of the time. If the pot had $500 in it, your expected value would be (.596) x (500)+(.352) x (500/2)=$386. If you only ran it once, your EV would be (.772) x (500)=386, which as you can see is the same exact value.

The benefits here depend on the hand, and possibly more on you personally. If you really don’t want to bust (and who does?), then reducing the possibility of losing it all keeps your roll safer. In other words, it lowers variance. The likelihood of your opponent getting lucky on the river two times in a row is exponentially lower than it happening once. If you’re a risk-averse player, or just looking for ways to reduce variance, then running it twice can be a good option.

There are also situations where I think it is silly not to run it twice. One example might be a hand where your opponent has just one out. Because the cards aren’t shuffled back into the deck, he can’t possibly win the whole pot. In this case you are insulating yourself against risk while still winning the whole pot in the vast majority of cases. Surprisingly, running it twice actually lowers variance for both the losing and the winning player, because the loser gets another chance to hit his draw.

Of course, some cases also exist where you should refuse to run it twice. If you’re up against a really aggressive player who keeps trying to steal the pot every hand and when called asks to run it twice, you may want to decline. He wants to reduce his variance to make sure he doesn’t go broke when he gets caught. You, on the other hand, would like nothing more than to punish this player. The more variance he has, the better.

If you aren’t too bothered by variance, then by all means only run it once. The expected value of your hand isn’t improved by running it twice. Poker is sometimes about getting it all in and seeing who ends up taking all the money. But if a bad run of cards is dragging on your bankroll, or you want to protect the night’s big winnings, then think about running it twice.