The Continuation bet, or C-bet, is the strongest bluff commonly used in poker. I went into more detail in the previous post, but basically the c-bet is a continuation of pre-flop aggression. The pre-flop bettor takes advantage of the 70% chance that his opponent didn’t hit the flop. This works often enough to be profitable and many players will do it 80% or even 100% of the time. Learning to recognize and defend against the c-bet is important yet difficult. It would be an understatement to say that you must have position to properly defend against the c-bet. Though it is important that you defend against c-bets, you will still need to fold to them most of the time. Too many defended c-bets will lead to exploitation by opponents the same way that too few will. My rule is 1 out of 5 times.

You must first put your opponent on a range before you try to defend against his c-bet. It’s always possible that he hit the flop hard and is making a legitimate bet. So why should you defend against the c-bet? There are two reasons: one, to prevent your opponent from stealing every pot from you. Secondly, you need to disguise your hands so that it isn’t obvious when you do hit the flop. The 1 out of 5 rule will help with this.

To put your opponent on a range, you need to gather some information on him. Whether you take mental or paper notes or use a program, check out his stats. If he’s a tight player, odds are that he’s got a good hand. Likewise, if he’s a loose player, it is more likely that he’s just making a c-bet. In addition, note his position. A player who raises under the gun or in early position is more likely to have a good hand than one who raises on the button or in the cutoff position.

So if you have determined that your opponent is making a c-bet and you want to defend, you now have two options: call or raise. Just calling is a good idea against tight players, who are likely to check/fold to you on the turn. Call rarely, as a player who notices your line might fake weakness by checking on the turn and then proceed to re-raise you. Keep in mind what hand you’re representing. Against these tight players consider calling on a flop with an ace or king, because your opponent will likely put on you a pair. If you call on a low board, though, your opponent will probably put you on a draw. This will make it hard to raise on the turn if the “draw” isn’t completed and you will almost certainly be facing another barrel.

Raising is a good option on low boards that aren’t likely to have hit your opponent, like 268, or flops that look like a draw. If you raise a tight opponent on such a board, he may put you on an over pair and fold.

Be careful and remember that defending too often is a mistake…

A Continuation Bet, or C-bet, is just a bet made by the pre-flop raiser, often made regardless of whether he actually hit the flop. The c-bet is designed to win the pot by betting aggressively. The purpose is to get players who didn’t hit the flop to fold. Statistically, In Holdem there is roughly a 2/3 chance that players will not pair the flop. The primary goal in making a continuation bet should be to win the pot. Therefore, a good c-bet must win the pot when the player misses the flop, or build it when he connects.

Poker players often use a wide range of continuation bets. Each extreme- betting too much or too little- carries with it some distinct advantages and drawbacks. Players usually stick to three common c-bet sizes: half the pot, ¾ of the pot, or the whole pot. When a player bets half the pot, he needs to be successful just 34% of the time for the move to be a profitable one in the long run. As bet size increases, the play needs to be successful more often. When betting ¾ of the pot a player must win at least 43% of the time, and in the case of a full pot bet the percentage increases to 51%.

Although a smaller continuation bet doesn’t need to win quite as often as a larger bet, it isn’t always the answer. If a c-bet is too small it can give opponents good pot odds to call, even if they didn’t pair the board. Bets that are too large represent a greater risk, on the other hand. A player who consistently bets more than the pot when ¾ would have done it is putting more money in play then he needs to. In the long run he will probably lose money from the play.

In addition, good players will quickly catch on to a standard bet size. If a player tends to bet half the pot every time he raises pre-flop and misses the flop, he will soon be taken advantage of by better players. Therefore, a player must be careful to vary c-bet sizes unpredictably to avoid giving away his hand or always use the same size whether you hit or not. One good way to do this is to have two standard bet sizes that vary based on how the flop comes out (also known as flop texture) and opponents’ styles of play. A ‘dangerous’ flop-one with three spades, for example-might require a larger bet. Similarly, looser players or those less likely to fold after calling pre-flop raises will require larger bets.
For lower levels of Hold’em a varying bet size of ¾ pot up to full pot is generally best. To give an example of how to use this varying betting scheme, let’s say that you have three actions when you miss a flop. For this example let’s say you don’t bet 20% of the time when you miss the flop, bet ¾ of the pot 35% of the time, and bet the full pot the remaining 45% of the time.

To provide some numbers for this example and make the math simple let’s say the average pot size at some Hold’em game is $50. Assume your opponent folds half the time you make a c-bet of ¾ pot size and 60% of the time you make a pot sized bet, which is a reasonably accurate assumption (in some games!). Also assume, for the sake of making a conservative estimate, that your hand never improves after the flop.
Then the 20% of the time that you don’t bet on the flop, you win $0. 35% of the time you bet ¾ of the pot. When your opponent calls you lose $37.50. When your opponent folds you win $50. For the 45% of the time that you bet the full pot, if your opponent calls you lose $50. If he folds, you win $50. Then you would expect to win: $0 from not betting, (.35)*[(.5)*(-37.50)+(.5)*(50)] = $2.18 from betting ¾ pot, and (.45)*[(.4)*(-50)+(.6)*(50)]= $4.50 from betting a full pot. This adds up to $6.68 per hand, on average. On a given night a C-bet might be made many times and the play will add to your bottom line.

Of course this example is an extremely simplified version, and other factors come into real play. Position is very important, and you must always take into account your opponent’s play style. If he’s a hyper-aggressive player or a calling station, a c-bet often isn’t the best choice. In the right situation the c-bet is an extremely powerful tool.

Next time I will talk about defending against the c-bet…

I was in Philly this week for business, and flew in one day early to take a side trip to AC.

I arrived at the Borgata at 9:00 pm to check in. They told me they were giving me an upgrade from a standard room to the an Opus Suite, which is their second largest suite. They must have been sold out, because I’m just a poker player and the Opus suites are reserved for the high rollers. The Room was a huge 1000 square foot beast. It was wasted since I only used the room for sleeping and I was only in there for maybe 6 hours.

After arriving, I dropped my bag in the suite and headed to the poker room. I played 2-5 NL and the game was pretty snug. A couple of hours into the session an interesting hand came up. I was sitting one off the button and I was dealt 33. The UTG (Under The Gun) player raised to $15. I called the raise and so did 3 others.

The flop was 3 5 J with no suits, very dry which made me happy. Everyone checked to me and I bet $55. The initial raiser re-raised to $125, and the next player went all-in for about $300. The next player folded and another player went all in for about $750. I had $600 and folded because the action was a little too extreme. All 3 players put their money in! The initial raiser had an over pair of kings and the other 2 players both, amazingly, had J-5 for top 2 pair. No help came with the turn and river and I would have won a huge pot. I still love my fold.

The next day I was playing the same 2-5 game. I found myself on the button with snowmen (88). There were 4 limper’s and I raised in the cut off to $25 to fold the blinds and buy the button. 4 of us saw the flop, which was 5 8 K. They checked to me and I bet $65. The UTG player raised to $125. The next player folded and the following player made it $260. This hand is of course very different because a set of Kings was very unlikely based on the preflop action. I moved in for $650 and got called in 2 spots. The first re-raiser had 67 for a straight draw and the other player had K5 for 2 pair. There was no help for anyone and I took down a 2100 pot. It was a fun and profitable 24 hours in AC.