A Continuation Bet, or C-bet, is just a bet made by the pre-flop raiser, often made regardless of whether he actually hit the flop. The c-bet is designed to win the pot by betting aggressively. The purpose is to get players who didn’t hit the flop to fold. Statistically, In Holdem there is roughly a 2/3 chance that players will not pair the flop. The primary goal in making a continuation bet should be to win the pot. Therefore, a good c-bet must win the pot when the player misses the flop, or build it when he connects.

Poker players often use a wide range of continuation bets. Each extreme- betting too much or too little- carries with it some distinct advantages and drawbacks. Players usually stick to three common c-bet sizes: half the pot, ¾ of the pot, or the whole pot. When a player bets half the pot, he needs to be successful just 34% of the time for the move to be a profitable one in the long run. As bet size increases, the play needs to be successful more often. When betting ¾ of the pot a player must win at least 43% of the time, and in the case of a full pot bet the percentage increases to 51%.

Although a smaller continuation bet doesn’t need to win quite as often as a larger bet, it isn’t always the answer. If a c-bet is too small it can give opponents good pot odds to call, even if they didn’t pair the board. Bets that are too large represent a greater risk, on the other hand. A player who consistently bets more than the pot when ¾ would have done it is putting more money in play then he needs to. In the long run he will probably lose money from the play.

In addition, good players will quickly catch on to a standard bet size. If a player tends to bet half the pot every time he raises pre-flop and misses the flop, he will soon be taken advantage of by better players. Therefore, a player must be careful to vary c-bet sizes unpredictably to avoid giving away his hand or always use the same size whether you hit or not. One good way to do this is to have two standard bet sizes that vary based on how the flop comes out (also known as flop texture) and opponents’ styles of play. A ‘dangerous’ flop-one with three spades, for example-might require a larger bet. Similarly, looser players or those less likely to fold after calling pre-flop raises will require larger bets.
For lower levels of Hold’em a varying bet size of ¾ pot up to full pot is generally best. To give an example of how to use this varying betting scheme, let’s say that you have three actions when you miss a flop. For this example let’s say you don’t bet 20% of the time when you miss the flop, bet ¾ of the pot 35% of the time, and bet the full pot the remaining 45% of the time.

To provide some numbers for this example and make the math simple let’s say the average pot size at some Hold’em game is $50. Assume your opponent folds half the time you make a c-bet of ¾ pot size and 60% of the time you make a pot sized bet, which is a reasonably accurate assumption (in some games!). Also assume, for the sake of making a conservative estimate, that your hand never improves after the flop.
Then the 20% of the time that you don’t bet on the flop, you win $0. 35% of the time you bet ¾ of the pot. When your opponent calls you lose $37.50. When your opponent folds you win $50. For the 45% of the time that you bet the full pot, if your opponent calls you lose $50. If he folds, you win $50. Then you would expect to win: $0 from not betting, (.35)*[(.5)*(-37.50)+(.5)*(50)] = $2.18 from betting ¾ pot, and (.45)*[(.4)*(-50)+(.6)*(50)]= $4.50 from betting a full pot. This adds up to $6.68 per hand, on average. On a given night a C-bet might be made many times and the play will add to your bottom line.

Of course this example is an extremely simplified version, and other factors come into real play. Position is very important, and you must always take into account your opponent’s play style. If he’s a hyper-aggressive player or a calling station, a c-bet often isn’t the best choice. In the right situation the c-bet is an extremely powerful tool.

Next time I will talk about defending against the c-bet…