Monthly Archives: September 2009

Variance in PLO?

There has been a lot of talk in my poker circle about Pot Limit Omaha variance. PLO has higher probabilities of big hands coming out, which in turn leads to big pots. This leads to high variance. Some would say variance is basically poker-speak for bad luck. There’s several reasons for the high variance in Omaha. One is that players love calling just about any hand pre-flop, as many hands appear to be playable with six 2 card combinations. This in addition to the bigger hands makes it harder to put another player on a hand. When your opponent just happens to complete a back door runner runner straight on the river with the cards he wasn’t even looking at, that is variance and everyone experiences it. Gamblers embrace it, pros try to minimize it. Here are a few way to minimize it.

To minimize your variance, first learn what makes a good starting hand. Tighter play preflop in general will lower variance. Much of what people think of as variance is just poor play. Also, quit buying in short stacked. Being short stacked means you’ll be forced to go all-in often, which makes the game pure probability. If you are better than other players, you want to be able to actually play post-flop. If buying in for the max amount is too scary, then you should be playing lower limits. Fear of losing is a great recipe for going bust.

Working on your post-flop play and hand reading abilities will work wonders, too. Without hand reading skills, every hand is like a shot in the dark. The only way to work on your skills is to play and read everything on the game. You should avoid making neutral Expected Value calls with no more money to bet in large pots. Calling in these spots with no more money to put in the pot is essentially gambling. There’s not necessarily anything wrong with that, but it will lead to higher variance. Betting, on the other hand, is a different story due to fold equity.

Preflop, don’t 3-bet too often with stacks bigger than 100 big blinds, especially out of position. 3-betting guarantees a big pot when you get multiple callers, which you will probably get when betting out of position. This leaves you with poor position to play the rest of the hand. The same goes for “bad” aces hands and aces out of position even if high quality.

If the high variance of PLO is just too much for you, consider playing another game. No reason to throw good money after bad; if you aren’t cut out for Omaha then just don’t play it.